Improved prediction of clinical pregnancy using artificial intelligence with enhanced inner cell mass and trophectoderm images.

This study aimed to assess the performance of an artificial intelligence (AI) model for predicting clinical pregnancy using enhanced inner cell mass (ICM) and trophectoderm (TE) images. In this retrospective study, we included static images of 2555 day-5-blastocysts from seven in vitro fertilization centers in South Korea. The main outcome of the study was the predictive capability of the model to detect clinical pregnancies (gestational sac). Compared with the original embryo images, the use of enhanced ICM and TE images improved the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the AI model from 0.716 to 0.741. Additionally, a gradient-weighted class activation mapping analysis demonstrated that the enhanced image-trained AI model was able to extract features from crucial areas of the embryo in 99% (506/512) of the cases. Particularly, it could extract the ICM and TE. In contrast, the AI model trained on the original images focused on the main areas in only 86% (438/512) of the cases. Our results highlight the potential efficacy of using ICM- and TE-enhanced embryo images when training AI models to predict clinical pregnancy.

Prediction of Cardiovascular Complication in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Using an XGBoost/GRU-ODE-Bayes-Based Machine-Learning Algorithm.

BACKGRUOUND: Cardiovascular disease is life-threatening yet preventable for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Because each patient with T2DM has a different risk of developing cardiovascular complications, the accurate stratification of cardiovascular risk is critical. In this study, we proposed cardiovascular risk engines based on machine-learning algorithms for newly diagnosed T2DM patients in Korea. METHODS: To develop the machine-learning-based cardiovascular disease engines, we retrospectively analyzed 26,166 newly diagnosed T2DM patients who visited Seoul St. Mary's Hospital between July 2009 and April 2019. To accurately measure diabetes-related cardiovascular events, we designed a buffer (1 year), an observation (1 year), and an outcome period (5 years). The entire dataset was split into training and testing sets in an 8:2 ratio, and this procedure was repeated 100 times. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated by 10-fold cross-validation on the training dataset. RESULTS: The machine-learning-based risk engines (AUROC XGBoost=0.781±0.014 and AUROC gated recurrent unit [GRU]-ordinary differential equation [ODE]-Bayes=0.812±0.016) outperformed the conventional regression-based model (AUROC=0.723± 0.036). CONCLUSION: GRU-ODE-Bayes-based cardiovascular risk engine is highly accurate, easily applicable, and can provide valuable information for the individualized treatment of Korean patients with newly diagnosed T2DM.

Development and Validation of a Convolutional Neural Network Model to Predict a Pathologic Fracture in the Proximal Femur Using Abdomen and Pelvis CT Images of Patients With Advanced Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Improvement in survival in patients with advanced cancer is accompanied by an increased probability of bone metastasis and related pathologic fractures (especially in the proximal femur). The few systems proposed and used to diagnose impending fractures owing to metastasis and to ultimately prevent future fractures have practical limitations; thus, novel screening tools are essential. A CT scan of the abdomen and pelvis is a standard modality for staging and follow-up in patients with cancer, and radiologic assessments of the proximal femur are possible with CT-based digitally reconstructed radiographs. Deep-learning models, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), may be able to predict pathologic fractures from digitally reconstructed radiographs, but to our knowledge, they have not been tested for this application. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) How accurate is a CNN model for predicting a pathologic fracture in a proximal femur with metastasis using digitally reconstructed radiographs of the abdomen and pelvis CT images in patients with advanced cancer? (2) Do CNN models perform better than clinicians with varying backgrounds and experience levels in predicting a pathologic fracture on abdomen and pelvis CT images without any knowledge of the patients' histories, except for metastasis in the proximal femur? METHODS: A total of 392 patients received radiation treatment of the proximal femur at three hospitals from January 2011 to December 2021. The patients had 2945 CT scans of the abdomen and pelvis for systemic evaluation and follow-up in relation to their primary cancer. In 33% of the CT scans (974), it was impossible to identify whether a pathologic fracture developed within 3 months after each CT image was acquired, and these were excluded. Finally, 1971 cases with a mean age of 59 ± 12 years were included in this study. Pathologic fractures developed within 3 months after CT in 3% (60 of 1971) of cases. A total of 47% (936 of 1971) were women. Sixty cases had an established pathologic fracture within 3 months after each CT scan, and another group of 1911 cases had no established pathologic fracture within 3 months after CT scan. The mean age of the cases in the former and latter groups was 64 ± 11 years and 59 ± 12 years, respectively, and 32% (19 of 60) and 53% (1016 of 1911) of cases, respectively, were female. Digitally reconstructed radiographs were generated with perspective projections of three-dimensional CT volumes onto two-dimensional planes. Then, 1557 images from one hospital were used for a training set. To verify that the deep-learning models could consistently operate even in hospitals with a different medical environment, 414 images from other hospitals were used for external validation. The number of images in the groups with and without a pathologic fracture within 3 months after each CT scan increased from 1911 to 22,932 and from 60 to 720, respectively, using data augmentation methods that are known to be an effective way to boost the performance of deep-learning models. Three CNNs (VGG16, ResNet50, and DenseNet121) were fine-tuned using digitally reconstructed radiographs. For performance measures, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 score were determined. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate three CNN models mainly, and the optimal accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated using the Youden J statistic. Accuracy refers to the proportion of fractures in the groups with and without a pathologic fracture within 3 months after each CT scan that were accurately predicted by the CNN model. Sensitivity and specificity represent the proportion of accurately predicted fractures among those with and without a pathologic fracture within 3 months after each CT scan, respectively. Precision is a measure of how few false-positives the model produces. The F1 score is a harmonic mean of sensitivity and precision, which have a tradeoff relationship. Gradient-weighted class activation mapping images were created to check whether the CNN model correctly focused on potential pathologic fracture regions. The CNN model with the best performance was compared with the performance of clinicians. RESULTS: DenseNet121 showed the best performance in identifying pathologic fractures; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for DenseNet121 was larger than those for VGG16 (0.77 ± 0.07 [95% CI 0.75 to 0.79] versus 0.71 ± 0.08 [95% CI 0.69 to 0.73]; p = 0.001) and ResNet50 (0.77 ± 0.07 [95% CI 0.75 to 0.79] versus 0.72 ± 0.09 [95% CI 0.69 to 0.74]; p = 0.001). Specifically, DenseNet121 scored the highest in sensitivity (0.22 ± 0.07 [95% CI 0.20 to 0.24]), precision (0.72 ± 0.19 [95% CI 0.67 to 0.77]), and F1 score (0.34 ± 0.10 [95% CI 0.31 to 0.37]), and it focused accurately on the region with the expected pathologic fracture. Further, DenseNet121 was less likely than clinicians to mispredict cases in which there was no pathologic fracture than cases in which there was a fracture; the performance of DenseNet121 was better than clinician performance in terms of specificity (0.98 ± 0.01 [95% CI 0.98 to 0.99] versus 0.86 ± 0.09 [95% CI 0.81 to 0.91]; p = 0.01), precision (0.72 ± 0.19 [95% CI 0.67 to 0.77] versus 0.11 ± 0.10 [95% CI 0.05 to 0.17]; p = 0.0001), and F1 score (0.34 ± 0.10 [95% CI 0.31 to 0.37] versus 0.17 ± 0.15 [95% CI 0.08 to 0.26]; p = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: CNN models may be able to accurately predict impending pathologic fractures from digitally reconstructed radiographs of the abdomen and pelvis CT images that clinicians may not anticipate; this can assist medical, radiation, and orthopaedic oncologists clinically. To achieve better performance, ensemble-learning models using knowledge of the patients' histories should be developed and validated. The code for our model is publicly available online at https://github.com/taehoonko/CNN_path_fx_prediction . LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, diagnostic study.

Improving Machine Learning Diabetes Prediction Models for the Utmost Clinical Effectiveness.

The early prediction of diabetes can facilitate interventions to prevent or delay it. This study proposes a diabetes prediction model based on machine learning (ML) to encourage individuals at risk of diabetes to employ healthy interventions. A total of 38,379 subjects were included. We trained the model on 80% of the subjects and verified its predictive performance on the remaining 20%. Furthermore, the performances of several algorithms were compared, including logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Cox regression, and XGBoost Survival Embedding (XGBSE). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the XGBoost model was the largest, followed by those of the decision tree, logistic regression, and random forest models. For the survival analysis, XGBSE yielded an AUROC exceeding 0.9 for the 2- to 9-year predictions and a C-index of 0.934, while the Cox regression achieved a C-index of 0.921. After lowering the threshold from 0.5 to 0.25, the sensitivity increased from 0.011 to 0.236 for the 2-year prediction model and from 0.607 to 0.994 for the 9-year prediction model, while the specificity showed negligible changes. We developed a high-performance diabetes prediction model that applied the XGBSE algorithm with threshold adjustment. We plan to use this prediction model in real clinical practice for diabetes prevention after simplifying and validating it externally.

Deep Learning Model Based on 3D Optical Coherence Tomography Images for the Automated Detection of Pathologic Myopia.

Pathologic myopia causes vision impairment and blindness, and therefore, necessitates a prompt diagnosis. However, there is no standardized definition of pathologic myopia, and its interpretation by 3D optical coherence tomography images is subjective, requiring considerable time and money. Therefore, there is a need for a diagnostic tool that can automatically and quickly diagnose pathologic myopia in patients. This study aimed to develop an algorithm that uses 3D optical coherence tomography volumetric images (C-scan) to automatically diagnose patients with pathologic myopia. The study was conducted using 367 eyes of patients who underwent optical coherence tomography tests at the Ophthalmology Department of Incheon St. Mary's Hospital and Seoul St. Mary's Hospital from January 2012 to May 2020. To automatically diagnose pathologic myopia, a deep learning model was developed using 3D optical coherence tomography images. The model was developed using transfer learning based on four pre-trained convolutional neural networks (ResNet18, ResNext50, EfficientNetB0, EfficientNetB4). Grad-CAM was used to visualize features affecting the detection of pathologic myopia. The performance of each model was evaluated and compared based on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The model based on EfficientNetB4 showed the best performance (95% accuracy, 93% sensitivity, 96% specificity, and 98% AUROC) in identifying pathologic myopia.

Estimation of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) is used as a threshold and target for treating dyslipidemia. Although the Friedewald equation is widely used to estimate LDL-C, it has been known to be inaccurate in the case of high triglycerides (TG) or non-fasting states. We aimed to propose a novel method to estimate LDL-C using machine learning. METHODS: Using a large, single-center electronic health record database, we derived a ML algorithm to estimate LDL-C from standard lipid profiles. From 1,029,572 cases with both standard lipid profiles (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and TG) and direct LDL-C measurements, 823,657 tests were used to derive LDL-C estimation models. Patient characteristics such as sex, age, height, weight, and other laboratory values were additionally used to create separate data sets and algorithms. RESULTS: Machine learning with gradient boosting (LDL-CX) and neural network (LDL-CN) showed better correlation with directly measured LDL-C, compared with conventional methods (r = 0.9662, 0.9668, 0.9563, 0.9585; for LDL-CX, LDL-CN, Friedewald [LDL-CF], and Martin [LDL-CM] equations, respectively). The overall bias of LDL-CX (-0.27 mg/dL, 95% CI -0.30 to -0.23) and LDL-CN (-0.01 mg/dL, 95% CI -0.04-0.03) were significantly smaller compared with both LDL-CF (-3.80 mg/dL, 95% CI -3.80 to -3.60) or LDL-CM (-2.00 mg/dL, 95% CI -2.00 to -1.94), especially at high TG levels. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning algorithms were superior in estimating LDL-C compared with the conventional Friedewald or the more contemporary Martin equations. Through external validation and modification, machine learning could be incorporated into electronic health records to substitute LDL-C estimation.

Asbestosis diagnosis algorithm combining the lung segmentation method and deep learning model in computed tomography image.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of asbestosis is important; hence, quick and accurate diagnostic tools are essential. This study aimed to develop an algorithm that combines lung segmentation and deep learning models that can be utilized as a clinical decision support system (CDSS) for diagnosing patients with asbestosis in segmented computed tomography (CT) images. METHODS: We accurately segmented the lungs in CT images of patients examined at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital using a threshold-based method. Lungs with asbestosis and normal lungs were classified by applying the segmented image to the long-term recurrent convolutional network deep learning model. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and F1 score from the test data. RESULTS: The algorithm developed using the DenseNet201pre-trained model showed excellent performance, with a sensitivity of 0.962, specificity of 0.975, accuracy of 0.970, AUROC of 0.968, and F1 score of 0.961. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an algorithm with significantly better diagnostic accuracy than a radiologist (0.970 vs. 0.73-0.79). Our developed algorithm is expected to be an excellent support tool if used as a CDSS to diagnose asbestosis using CT images.

Preparation of Network-Structured Carbon Nanofiber Mats Based on PAN Blends Using Electrospinning and Hot-Pressing Methods for Supercapacitor Applications.

In this work, we prepared network-structured carbon nanofibers using polyacrylonitrile blends (PAN150 and PAN85) with different molecular weights (150,000 and 85,000 g mol-1) as precursors through electrospinning/hot-pressing methods and stabilization/carbonization processes. The obtained PAN150/PAN85 polymer nanofibers (PNFs; PNF-73, PNF-64 and PNF-55) with different weight ratios of 70/30, 60/40 and 50/50 (w/w) provided good mechanical and electrochemical properties due to the formation of physically bonded network structures between the blended PAN nanofibers during the hot-processing/stabilization processes. The resulting carbonized PNFs (cPNFs; cPNF-73, cPNF-64, and cPNF-55) were utilized as anode materials for supercapacitor applications. cPNF-73 exhibited a good specific capacitance of 689 F g-1 at 1 A g-1 in a three-electrode set-up compared to cPNF-64 (588 F g-1 at 1 A g-1) and cPNF-55 (343 F g-1 at 1 A g-1). In addition, an asymmetric hybrid cPNF-73//NiCo2O4 supercapacitor device also showed a good specific capacitance of 428 F g-1 at 1 A g-1 compared to cPNF-64 (400 F g-1 at 1 A g-1) and cPNF-55 (315 F g-1 at 1 A g-1). The cPNF-73-based device showed a good energy density of 1.74 W h kg-1 (0.38 W kg-1) as well as an excellent cyclic stability (83%) even after 2000 continuous charge-discharge cycles at a current density of 2 A g-1.

Markers of Myocardial Damage Predict Mortality in Patients With Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is increasingly used for risk stratification in aortic stenosis (AS). However, the relative prognostic power of CMR markers and their respective thresholds remains undefined. OBJECTIVES: Using machine learning, the study aimed to identify prognostically important CMR markers in AS and their thresholds of mortality. METHODS: Patients with severe AS undergoing AVR (n = 440, derivation; n = 359, validation cohort) were prospectively enrolled across 13 international sites (median 3.8 years' follow-up). CMR was performed shortly before surgical or transcatheter AVR. A random survival forest model was built using 29 variables (13 CMR) with post-AVR death as the outcome. RESULTS: There were 52 deaths in the derivation cohort and 51 deaths in the validation cohort. The 4 most predictive CMR markers were extracellular volume fraction, late gadolinium enhancement, indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDVi), and right ventricular ejection fraction. Across the whole cohort and in asymptomatic patients, risk-adjusted predicted mortality increased strongly once extracellular volume fraction exceeded 27%, while late gadolinium enhancement >2% showed persistent high risk. Increased mortality was also observed with both large (LVEDVi >80 mL/m2) and small (LVEDVi ≤55 mL/m2) ventricles, and with high (>80%) and low (≤50%) right ventricular ejection fraction. The predictability was improved when these 4 markers were added to clinical factors (3-year C-index: 0.778 vs 0.739). The prognostic thresholds and risk stratification by CMR variables were reproduced in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning identified myocardial fibrosis and biventricular remodeling markers as the top predictors of survival in AS and highlighted their nonlinear association with mortality. These markers may have potential in optimizing the decision of AVR.

Satisfaction and Usability of an Information and Communications Technology-Based System by Clinically Healthy Patients With COVID-19 and Medical Professionals: Cross-sectional Survey and Focus Group Interview Study.

BACKGROUND: Digital health care is an important strategy in the war against COVID-19. South Korea introduced living and treatment support centers (LTSCs) to control regional outbreaks and care for patients with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) introduced information and communications technology (ICT)-based solutions to manage clinically healthy patients with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate satisfaction and usability by patients and health professionals in the optimal use of a mobile app and wearable device that SNUH introduced to the LTSC for clinically healthy patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Online surveys and focus group interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data. RESULTS: Regarding usability testing of the wearable device, perceived usefulness had the highest mean score of 4.45 (SD 0.57) points out of 5. Regarding usability of the mobile app, perceived usefulness had the highest mean score of 4.62 (SD 0.48) points out of 5. Regarding satisfaction items for the mobile app among medical professionals, the "self-reporting" item had the highest mean score of 4.42 (SD 0.58) points out of 5. In focus group interviews of health care professionals, hospital information system interfacing was the most important functional requirement for ICT-based COVID-19 telemedicine. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement of patient safety and reduction of the burden on medical staff were the expected positive outcomes. Stability and reliability of the device, patient education, accountability, and reimbursement issues should be considered as part of the development of remote patient monitoring. In responding to a novel contagious disease, telemedicine and a wearable device were shown to be useful during a global crisis.

Privacy-Oriented Technique for COVID-19 Contact Tracing (PROTECT) Using Homomorphic Encryption: Design and Development Study.

BACKGROUND: Various techniques are used to support contact tracing, which has been shown to be highly effective against the COVID-19 pandemic. To apply the technology, either quarantine authorities should provide the location history of patients with COVID-19, or all users should provide their own location history. This inevitably exposes either the patient's location history or the personal location history of other users. Thus, a privacy issue arises where the public good (via information release) comes in conflict with privacy exposure risks. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to develop an effective contact tracing system that does not expose the location information of the patient with COVID-19 to other users of the system, or the location information of the users to the quarantine authorities. METHODS: We propose a new protocol called PRivacy Oriented Technique for Epidemic Contact Tracing (PROTECT) that securely shares location information of patients with users by using the Brakerski/Fan-Vercauteren homomorphic encryption scheme, along with a new, secure proximity computation method. RESULTS: We developed a mobile app for the end-user and a web service for the quarantine authorities by applying the proposed method, and we verified their effectiveness. The proposed app and web service compute the existence of intersections between the encrypted location history of patients with COVID-19 released by the quarantine authorities and that of the user saved on the user's local device. We also found that this contact tracing smartphone app can identify whether the user has been in contact with such patients within a reasonable time. CONCLUSIONS: This newly developed method for contact tracing shares location information by using homomorphic encryption, without exposing the location information of patients with COVID-19 and other users. Homomorphic encryption is challenging to apply to practical issues despite its high security value. In this study, however, we have designed a system using the Brakerski/Fan-Vercauteren scheme that is applicable to a reasonable size and developed it to an operable format. The developed app and web service can help contact tracing for not only the COVID-19 pandemic but also other epidemics.

Explaining the Rationale of Deep Learning Glaucoma Decisions with Adversarial Examples.

PURPOSE: To illustrate what is inside the so-called black box of deep learning models (DLMs) so that clinicians can have greater confidence in the conclusions of artificial intelligence by evaluating adversarial explanation on its ability to explain the rationale of DLM decisions for glaucoma and glaucoma-related findings. Adversarial explanation generates adversarial examples (AEs), or images that have been changed to gain or lose pathologic characteristic-specific traits, to explain the DLM's rationale. DESIGN: Evaluation of explanation methods for DLMs. PARTICIPANTS: Health screening participants (n = 1653) at the Seoul National University Hospital Health Promotion Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea. METHODS: We trained DLMs for referable glaucoma (RG), increased cup-to-disc ratio (ICDR), disc rim narrowing (DRN), and retinal nerve fiber layer defect (RNFLD) using 6430 retinal fundus images. Surveys consisting of explanations using AE and gradient-weighted class activation mapping (GradCAM), a conventional heatmap-based explanation method, were generated for 400 pathologic and healthy patient eyes. For each method, board-trained glaucoma specialists rated location explainability, the ability to pinpoint decision-relevant areas in the image, and rationale explainability, the ability to inform the user on the model's reasoning for the decision based on pathologic features. Scores were compared by paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivities, and specificities of DLMs; visualization of clinical pathologic changes of AEs; and survey scores for locational and rationale explainability. RESULTS: The AUCs were 0.90, 0.99, 0.95, and 0.79 and sensitivities were 0.79, 1.00, 0.82, and 0.55 at 0.90 specificity for RG, ICDR, DRN, and RNFLD DLMs, respectively. Generated AEs showed valid clinical feature changes, and survey results for location explainability were 3.94 ± 1.33 and 2.55 ± 1.24 using AEs and GradCAMs, respectively, of a possible maximum score of 5 points. The scores for rationale explainability were 3.97 ± 1.31 and 2.10 ± 1.25 for AEs and GradCAM, respectively. Adversarial example provided significantly better explainability than GradCAM. CONCLUSIONS: Adversarial explanation increased the explainability over GradCAM, a conventional heatmap-based explanation method. Adversarial explanation may help medical professionals understand more clearly the rationale of DLMs when using them for clinical decisions.

The Experimental Process Design of Artificial Lightweight Aggregates Using an Orthogonal Array Table and Analysis by Machine Learning.

The purpose of this study is to experimentally design the drying, calcination, and sintering processes of artificial lightweight aggregates through the orthogonal array, to expand the data using the results, and to model the manufacturing process of lightweight aggregates through machine-learning techniques. The experimental design of the process consisted of L18(3661), which means that 36 × 61 data can be obtained in 18 experiments using an orthogonal array design. After the experiment, the data were expanded to 486 instances and trained by several machine-learning techniques such as linear regression, random forest, and support vector regression (SVR). We evaluated the predictive performance of machine-learning models by comparing predicted and actual values. As a result, the SVR showed the best performance for predicting measured values. This model also worked well for predictions of untested cases.

Information Technology-Based Management of Clinically Healthy COVID-19 Patients: Lessons From a Living and Treatment Support Center Operated by Seoul National University Hospital.

BACKGROUND: South Korea took preemptive action against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by implementing extensive testing, thorough epidemiological investigation, strict social distancing, and rapid treatment of patients according to disease severity. The Korean government entrusted large-scale hospitals with the operation of living and treatment support centers (LTSCs) for the management for clinically healthy COVID-19 patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to introduce our experience implementing information and communications technology (ICT)-based remote patient management systems at a COVID-19 LTSC. METHODS: We adopted new electronic health record templates, hospital information system (HIS) dashboards, cloud-based medical image sharing, a mobile app, and smart vital sign monitoring devices. RESULTS: Enhancements were made to the HIS to assist in the workflow and care of patients in the LTSC. A dashboard was created for the medical staff to view the vital signs and symptoms of all patients. Patients used a mobile app to consult with their physician or nurse, answer questionnaires, and input self-measured vital signs; the results were uploaded to the hospital information system in real time. Cloud-based image sharing enabled interoperability between medical institutions. Korea's strategy of aggressive mitigation has "flattened the curve" of the rate of infection. A multidisciplinary approach was integral to develop systems supporting patient care and management at the living and treatment support center as quickly as possible. CONCLUSIONS: Faced with a novel infectious disease, we describe the implementation and experience of applying an ICT-based patient management system in the LTSC affiliated with Seoul National University Hospital. ICT-based tools and applications are increasingly important in health care, and we hope that our experience will provide insight into future technology-based infectious disease responses.

Unsupervised Cluster Analysis of Patients With Aortic Stenosis Reveals Distinct Population With Different Phenotypes and Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of studies investigating the heterogeneity of patients with aortic stenosis (AS). We explored whether cluster analysis identifies distinct subgroups with different prognostic significances in AS. METHODS: Newly diagnosed patients with moderate or severe AS were prospectively enrolled between 2013 and 2016 (n=398, mean 71 years, 55% male). Among demographics, laboratory, and echocardiography parameters (n=32), 11 variables were selected through dimension reduction and used for unsupervised clustering. Phenotypes and causes of mortality were compared between the clusters. RESULTS: Three clusters with markedly different features were identified. Cluster 1 (n=60) was predominantly associated with cardiac dysfunction, cluster 2 (n=86) consisted of elderly with comorbidities, especially end-stage renal disease, whereas cluster 3 (n=252) demonstrated neither cardiac dysfunction nor comorbidities. Although AS severity did not differ, there was a significant difference in adverse outcomes between the clusters during a median 2.4 years follow-up (mortality rate, 13.3% versus 19.8% versus 6.0% for cluster 1, 2, and 3, P<0.001). Particularly, compared with cluster 3, cluster 1 was associated with only cardiac mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 7.37 [95% CI, 2.00-27.13]; P=0.003), whereas cluster 2 was associated with higher noncardiac mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.35 [95% CI, 1.26-8.90]; P=0.015). Phenotypes and association of clusters with specific outcomes were reproduced in an independent validation cohort (n=262). CONCLUSIONS: Unsupervised cluster analysis of patients with AS revealed 3 distinct groups with different causes of death. This provides a new perspective in the categorization of patients with AS that takes into account comorbidities and extravalvular cardiac dysfunction.

Association of Cardiovascular Mortality and Deep Learning-Funduscopic Atherosclerosis Score derived from Retinal Fundus Images.

PURPOSE: The prediction of atherosclerosis using retinal fundus images and deep learning has not been shown possible. The purpose of this study was to develop a deep learning model which predicted atherosclerosis by using retinal fundus images and to verify its clinical implications by conducting a retrospective cohort analysis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: The database at the Health Promotion Center of Seoul National University Hospital (HPC-SNUH) was used. The deep learning model was trained using 15,408 images to predict carotid artery atherosclerosis, which was named the deep-learning funduscopic atherosclerosis score (DL-FAS). A retrospective cohort was constructed of participants 30-80 years old who had completed elective health examinations at HPC-SNUH. Using DL-FAS as the main exposure, participants were followed for the primary outcome of death due to CVD until Dec. 31, 2017. RESULTS: For predicting carotid artery atherosclerosis among subjects, the model achieved an area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 0.713, 0.569, 0.583, 0.891, 0.404, 0.465, and 0.865 respectively. The cohort consisted of 32,227 participants, 78 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths, and 7.6-year median follow-up visits. Those with DL-FAS greater than 0.66 had an increased risk of CVD deaths compared to those with DL-FAS <0.33 (hazard ratio: 8.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.16-24.7). Risk association was significant among intermediate and high Framingham risk score (FRS) subgroups. The DL-FAS improved the concordance by 0.0266 (95% CI, 0.0043-0.0489) over the FRS-only model. The relative integrated discrimination index was 20.45% and net reclassification index was 29.5%. CONCLUSIONS: A deep learning model was developed which could predict atherosclerosis from retinal fundus images. The resulting DL-FAS was an independent predictor of CVD deaths when adjusted for FRS and added predictive value over FRS.

Transfusion after total knee arthroplasty can be predicted using the machine learning algorithm.

PURPOSE: A blood transfusion after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is associated with an increase in complication and infection rates. However, no studies have been conducted to predict transfusion after TKA using a machine learning algorithm. The purpose of this study was to identify informative preoperative variables to create a machine learning model, and to provide a web-based transfusion risk-assessment system for clinical use. METHODS: This study retrospectively reviewed 1686 patients who underwent TKA at our institution. Data for 43 preoperative variables, including medication history, laboratory values, and demographic characteristics, were collected. Variable selection was conducted using the recursive feature elimination algorithm. The transfusion group was defined as patients with haemoglobin (Hb) < 7 g/dL after TKA. A predictive model was developed using the gradient boosting machine, and the performance of the model was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Data sets from an independent institution were tested with the model for external validation. RESULTS: Of the 1686 patients who underwent TKA, 108 (6.4%) were categorized into the transfusion group. Six preoperative variables were selected, including preoperative Hb, platelet count, type of surgery, tranexamic acid, age, and body weight. The predictive model demonstrated good predictive performance using the six variables [AUC 0.842; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.820-0.856]. Performance was also good according to the external validation using 400 data from an independent institution (AUC 0.880; 95% CI 0.844-0.910). This web-based blood transfusion risk-assessment system can be accessed at http://safetka.net. CONCLUSIONS: A web-based predictive model for transfusion after TKA using a machine learning algorithm was developed using six preoperative variables. The model is simple, has been validated, showed good performance, and can be used before TKA to predict the risk of transfusion and guide appropriate precautions for high-risk patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Diagnostic level II.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Korean Triage and Acuity Scale Level in Emergency Department Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Triage is a process to accurately assess and classify symptoms to identify and provide rapid treatment to patients. The Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS) is used as a triage instrument in all emergency centers. The aim of this study was to train and compare machine learning models to predict KTAS levels. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using data from a single emergency department of a tertiary university hospital. Information collected during triage was used in the analysis. Logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost were used to predict the KTAS level. RESULTS: The models with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were the random forest and XGBoost models trained on the entire dataset (AUROC = 0.922, 95% confidence interval 0.917-0.925 and AUROC = 0.922, 95% confidence interval 0.918-0.925, respectively). The AUROC of the models trained on the clinical data was higher than that of models trained on text data only, but the models trained on all variables had the highest AUROC among similar machine learning models. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning can robustly predict the KTAS level at triage, which may have many possibilities for use, and the addition of text data improves the predictive performance compared to that achieved by using structured data alone.